Introduction
When Donald J. Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, with J.D Vance as vice president, few could predict the trajectory that U.S. policies would take, particularly in areas of trade and economy. Now in mid-2025, we have a better indication of this administration’s stance.
U.S. Economy & Growth
As of mid-2025, the GDP growth rate was around 2.4% in Q2 despite a slight Q1 contraction, and unemployment sat at approximately 4.1%. Inflation CPI was around 2.7%-2.9%, by OECD forecasts, growth is projected to settle around 1.6%-1.7% by the end of the year with inflation estimated at ~3.9%. Furthermore, tariff revenues for FY2025 were around $200 billion as blue-collar wage growth steadily increased by approximately 1.7% with capital expenditures rising by about 16.6% in H1 2025.
Tariffs & Trade Policy
President Trump has upheld an aggressive tariff regime across China, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico, with baseline rates around 15-50%. The relations with each have been as varied as they have been complex. Despite the turbulence surrounding the EU negotiations, a US-Japan trade agreement that reduces import duties to around 15% has market sentiments rallying. However, the US-China and US-Canada-Mexico trade war paints a varied picture, with pending negotiations and imposed tariffs of 25% respectively. Yet it might be the judgement from the Court of International Trade that presents the greater challenge, ruling that tariffs imposed under the IEEPA exceed presidential authority, thus blocking their enforcement.
International & Regional Developments
The OECD has warned of a global slowdown, with U.S. growth trimmed, inflation rising, and global forecast dropping to approximately 2.9% for 2025-26. In the UK, the decision-maker panel found a modest negative impact of trade uncertainties, but a generally low exposure (approximately 3% revenue from the U.S.). Amidst this, U.S.–U.K. and U.S.-Pakistan deals are advancing towards closure. Yet, growing backlash with European boycott movements against U.S. goods loom large, along with travel warnings issued over U.S. border policies.
Despite these bustling developments, no informed predictions can be made without keeping abreast of the most recent news and verified sources, especially relating to anything post-2024.
Conclusion / Takeaway
The landscape under the 47th U.S. presidency has undoubtedly been filled with fast-paced, often polarizing decisions, with ripple effects that continue to shape the U.S. and global economy. As 2025 progresses further, it becomes increasingly crucial to stay informed about these evolving dynamics. Given the wide-reaching impacts and the constant evolution of trade and economic policies, we hope this up-to-date panorama of the current U.S. administration and its international outlook offers a comprehensive perspective to navigate these complex scenarios.
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