Reviewing the Mid-Term Progress of the 47th U.S. Administration’s Growth and Trade Policies

With the 47th U.S. administration, led by President Donald J. Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance, nearly halfway through its term, now seems like an apt time to assess its trade and economic policies. While the U.S. is currently in a period of economic growth, there are continued concerns about the future, especially considering the administration’s aggressive tariff regime.

Mid 2025: The Economy at a Glance

The US GDP grew ~2.4% in the second quarter, counterbalancing a slight contraction in Q1. The unemployment rate stands at ~4.1%, and the inflation CPA’s core CPI is around 2.7%–2.9%. However, the OECD predicts a dimmed scenario for the rest of the year with growth scaled down to ~1.6%–1.7% and inflation reaching ~3.9%.

Trump’s second non-consecutive term has been marked by significant tariff revenues, reaching ~$200 billion in fiscal year 2025, and blue-collar wage growth of ~1.7%. Another highlight is the notable rise in capital expenditures, up ~16.6% in the first half of 2025.

The Trump Tariffs and Trade Outlook

President Trump has maintained his aggressive stance towards trade, imposing baseline tariffs ranging from 15–50% on China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico. Current negotiations are notably precarious with the European Union, with the discussion at the Turnberry golf resort only yielding a 50/50 chance of a 15% baseline tariff agreement.

A promising end seems near with Japan, as a deal valued at around $550 billion reduces import duties to ~15%, and further negotiations with China aim to extend the tariff truce. Although, the looming legal impediment following the Court of International Trade’s ruling against tariffs enforcement under the IEEPA remains a serious concern.

Inevitably, these tariffs have spurred economic backlash, with average household costs at ~$1,296 in 2025, projected to rise to ~$1,683 in 2026. Surging costs are expected to gradually inflate consumer prices by ~2% over the next two years.

International Ripples and Responses

The Trump administration’s trade policies have caused international tremors. The OECD has warned of a global slowdown, with U.S. growth reduced and inflation on the rise. The decision-maker panel found that UK firms have been negatively impacted, but overall exposure is low at ~3% revenue from the U.S.

Further backlash can be seen in the form of European boycott movements targeting U.S. goods and travel warnings issued over contentious U.S. border policies. Despite this, U.S.–U.K. and U.S.–Pakistan trade negotiations are advancing, both nearing deal before the August 1 deadline.

In Summary

The 47th U.S. Administration’s economic and international growth prospect seems mired in uncertainty, partly due to aggressive trade policies. Both national and international indicators suggest caution, even as technological advancements and domestic investments fortify the economy. In such tumultuous times, it is evident that understanding these developments is crucial to navigating the economic future.