Into the Second Half of 2025: A Close Look at the Trump Administration, Trade and the Economy

As we plunge into the second half of 2025, the United States is under the leadership of President Donald J. Trump, who was sworn in on January 20, 2025, for his second non-consecutive term, with J.D. Vance as Vice President. Trump’s administration is marked by aggressive economic policies that have stirred up not just the national economy but also the international arena.

This article drills down into the administration’s trade and economic policies, the U.S. economy’s performance in terms of GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation, the impact of Trump’s aggressive tariff regime, and the international outlook based on data from verified, up-to-date sources.

The U.S. Economy & Growth in 2025

As of mid-2025, the U.S. GDP growth is around 2.4% in Q2, following a slight Q1 contraction. The unemployment rate stands at around 4.1% and the inflation CPA, core CPI is roughly between 2.7% and 2.9%. According to the OECD forecasts, the economy will grow at 1.6%–1.7% with inflation rising up to about 3.9% by the end of the year.

The milestone achievements reported by the treasury are promising, with tariff revenues touching roughly $200 billion in FY2025, blue-collar wage growth at around 1.7%, and capital expenditures rising at about 16.6% in H1 2025.

Trump’s Aggressive Tariffs & Trade Policy

Trump’s government has steered an audacious tariff regime, imposing baseline rates between 15–50% across China, EU, Canada, and Mexico. The ripple effects of these policies stretch far and wide.

• A critical negotiation between the EU and the U.S. at the Turnberry golf resort is aiming to establish a 15% baseline tariff, although the deal hovers at a 50/50% completion status.
• The US-Japan trade agreement lowers import duties to about 15%, marking a significant achievement as markets rally on a deal valued around $550 billion in investments.
• Despite the ongoing U.S.–China negotiations in Stockholm to extend tariff truce above 55% tariffs, the tension persists.
• The trade war also continues with Canada and Mexico, with 25% tariffs on imports from both countries effective since March 4; albeit some exceptions have been granted under the USMCA for many goods.

The Court of International Trade ruled in May 2025 that tariffs imposed under the IEEPA exceeded presidential authority, thereby blocking their enforcement. This aggressive tariff policy has placed an estimated average household cost of ~$1,296 in 2025, rising to nearly $1,683 in 2026. As fall outs, market income is projected to reduce by approximately 1.4%, and consumer prices are anticipated to raise by ~2% over two years.

International & Regional Developments

The OECD has raised alarms about a global slowdown. They warn of rising inflation and slower US growth, affecting the global forecast to around 2.9% in 2025–2026.

Other trade negotiations, such as U.S.–U.K., are advancing, and Pakistan is nearing a deal before the August 1 deadline. However, the administration’s aggressive policies have spurred a wave of social/political backlash, including a European boycott movement targeting U.S. goods and travel warnings issued over U.S. border policies.

Conclusion

As we have seen, the policies of the Trump administration in 2025 have instigated a series of reactions nationally and globally. Economic indicators like GDP growth, inflation rate, unemployment, tariff revenues, and other key figures reaffirm the administration’s economic strategy’s impacts, whether for better or worse remains a topic of debate. As this eventful year progresses, the world watches closely as new economic policies shape the future.

If you wish to stay updated on the latest in U.S. trade and economic policies, and understand how they might impact you, please do keep an eye on our blog for the most accurate and timely updates.