The 2025 U.S. Administration and its Economic, Trade Policies: An Insightful Outlook

Since the swearing in of Donald J. Trump as the 47th President on January 20, 2025, following up on the United States’ administration, its trade and economic policies has become even more integral. The administration that kicked off with J.D. Vance as Vice President saw pivotal changes in the domestic and international stage.

U.S. Economy & Growth

Recording a GDP growth of 2.4% in Q2 of 2025, the U.S. economy rebounded from a slight Q1 contraction. Additionally, the unemployment rate hovered at 4.1%. The inflation CPA presented a core CPI that ranged between 2.7% to 2.9%. Major milestones such as tariff revenues estimated at $200 billion, blue-collar wage growth at around 1.7%, and a 16.6% rise in capital expenditures were reported in the first half of 2025. Furthermore, OECD forecasts painted a picture of moderate growth between 1.6% to 1.7%, and an inflation rate of ~3.9% by year-end.

Tariffs & Trade Policy

The administration enacted a more aggressive tariff regime, with baseline rates between 15% to 50% against countries including China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico. Despite criticism and legal challenges, the administration stayed its course, even as adverse effects on the average household, market income, and consumer prices were noted.

Negotiations with the EU aimed for 15% baseline tariffs, but the deal sits tight in a 50/50 status. On a brighter note, the US-Japan deal decreases import duties to 15%, and the markets reacted positively to this agreement valued at around $550 billion. Meanwhile, U.S.-China negotiations still advance, and tariff truce extensions above 55% tariffs await decision.

International & Regional Developments

OECD has warned of a global slowdown with the U.S.’s trimmed growth and rising inflation. The forecast signaled a global deceleration to approximately 2.9% in ’25-’26. As a result of the new tariff regime, negative impacts on UK firms were recorded but at a considerably less exposed rate, with an average of 3% revenue originating from the U.S.

However, the social and political backlash from Europe, including a boycott movement and travel warnings, increases pressure on this policy. Despite the tumult, U.S.-U.K. and Pakistan’s trade negotiations are progressing and nearing a deal before the August 1 deadline.

Conclusion

The return of President Trump’s administration, in its second non-consecutive term, brought renewed and refined dynamics in the U.S.’s economic, trade, and international policies. With timely statistics and reliable forecasts, this understanding equips us in adopting a more informed approach when tackling pertinent economic questions. The landscape might continue to change, but our commitment to providing up-to-date, accurate information remains consistent.

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